Best Bets for October 23: 3 Plays With Real Edge

Friday’s Slate: World Series Game 1, Friday Night ACC Action, and a Marquee NBA Matchup

Three plays today, ranked by win probability. The Fall Classic opens in Milwaukee, Duke and Virginia renew their ACC title rematch on ESPN, and the Celtics host the Knicks in their home opener. Every play gets real matchup reasoning, a decisive call, and a link to a top book.

1. Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers (World Series Game 1, 8:08 p.m. ET, Fox) – 65%

Game 1 comes down to the arms, and Milwaukee has the better one. Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, a likely Cy Young winner, gets the opener against Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez. The Brewers finished with the best record in the National League, and they are playing their first World Series game in 44 years, so American Family Field will be at a volume it has never seen. The Rays are a worthy opponent, but a home ace in a raucous October park is one of the strongest spots in the sport. Play: Brewers moneyline via BetUS.

2. Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) – 60%

This is a rematch of the 2025 ACC Championship Game, which Duke won 27-20 in overtime, and the matchup details favor the Blue Devils again. Duke’s run defense has been excellent, allowing just over 100 rushing yards per game, while Virginia ranks 12th of 17 ACC teams in run defense and has lost both games this season in which it surrendered more than 200 rushing yards. That sets up perfectly for ACC leading rusher Nate Sheppard, who has 820 yards and eight touchdowns. Duke’s two losses came by a combined seven points, so this is a battle tested group catching the better situational spot. Play: Duke moneyline via BetOnline.

3. New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (7:00 p.m. ET, Prime Video) – 58%

Both teams are 0-1 and desperate for their first win, but the Celtics get the home opener edge at TD Garden. New addition Paul George poured in 38 in his Boston debut, Jayson Tatum will not shoot 6-for-23 again, and Mitchell Robinson gets a revenge game against his former team. The Knicks lost their season opener at home on ring night, and opening the season with two straight losses is a recipe for real frustration. The home opener crowd against a fellow 0-1 rival is a strong spot. Play: Celtics moneyline via SportsBetting.ag.

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