ALCS Game 5 Tonight: Rays vs. Guardians Tied 2-2, Rasmussen vs. Messick

After the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians 7-3 on Saturday night at Progressive Field, the American League Championship Series is even at two games apiece. Game 5 goes Sunday at 5:08 p.m. ET in Cleveland, with right-hander Drew Rasmussen facing left-hander Parker Messick in a pitching rematch from the first two games of the series.

How Game 4 Got Away From Cleveland

The Rays took a 2-1 lead in the sixth on Junior Caminero’s RBI double, then broke the game open with three runs in the seventh. The big blow came on Jonathan Aranda’s single that right fielder Chase DeLauter misplayed, letting two runs score. Yandy Diaz added a two-run homer in the ninth to put it out of reach.

It was a costly night for Cleveland’s rookies. Daniel Espino took the loss in relief, and DeLauter’s error in the seventh flipped the momentum for good. Jose Ramirez went 0-for-3 with a walk, extending his postseason on-base streak to 16 games, but the Guardians never strung together enough offense against Nick Martinez, who allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings for the win.

The Pitching Matchup

Rasmussen was excellent in the regular season, going 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, and he has a 1.29 ERA in the 2026 postseason. He started Game 1 of this series, working six innings and allowing two earned runs, though the Rays lost 7-3. In two regular-season starts against Cleveland, he posted a 1.50 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings.

Messick counters for Cleveland. He went 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA in the regular season but is 0-2 with a 3.09 ERA this postseason. In Game 2 at Tampa Bay, he allowed three runs, none earned, over five innings in a 3-1 loss. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt confirmed Messick would start Game 5 after Saturday’s loss.

What It Means for Bettors

The Rays opened as road favorites at -140, with the Guardians at +115 and the total at 6.5. The number reflects the pitching mismatch on paper: Rasmussen has been Tampa Bay’s steadiest starter all year, while Messick is still looking for his first postseason win. With two low-ERA arms and a tight total, the under has appeal, but bettors should note the Guardians bullpen was heavily worked on Saturday.

One more structural angle: the series is guaranteed to return to Florida for Game 6 on Monday night, so Cleveland cannot afford to lose at home before the series shifts. Shop the best ALCS odds at BetUS, BetOnline and Bovada.

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