Best Bets for October 16: 4 Plays With Real Edge

Today’s Best Bets, Friday October 16

Updated every morning. Four plays today, ranked by win probability. Every play gets real matchup reasoning, a decisive call, and a link to a top book.

1. Colorado Avalanche over Pittsburgh Penguins (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+) – 66%

Colorado is 4-2-1 and averaging 4.57 goals per game, and Ball Arena has been brutal for visitors. The Avalanche hung eight goals on Los Angeles and six on St. Louis there already this season. Pittsburgh is 3-3-1, has dropped four of its last five, and its road defense is the problem at 1-2-1 away from home. When a scoring machine hosts a team that is bleeding goals, take the home side. Play: Avalanche moneyline via BetUS.

2. Memphis Tigers over Tulane Green Wave (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) – 64%

Memphis is 5-1 and 2-0 in the American with the nation’s 7th-ranked offense at 516.7 yards per game, plus a ground game churning 247 yards per week, also 7th in the country. Marcus Stokes is dealing: 70.1 percent completions, 16 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. Tulane is 2-3, just lost at Army, and its defense allows 49 percent on third down, one of the worst rates in the nation, which keeps Memphis drives alive. The Tigers are conference favorites for a reason. Play: Memphis moneyline via Bovada.

3. Purdue Boilermakers over Washington Huskies (8:00 p.m. ET, FOX) – 62%

These two are sprinting in opposite directions. Purdue is 2-1 in Big Ten play with back-to-back wins, including a 41-13 demolition of Minnesota, the same Minnesota team that beat Washington earlier this season. The Huskies have lost three straight and are 0-3 in conference, with starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. in concussion protocol. Washington ranks last in the Big Ten in rushing (90.3 yards per game) and sacks allowed (21), and Purdue’s offense is one of the most efficient in the country. Home field under the lights seals it. Play: Purdue moneyline via BetOnline.

4. Cleveland Guardians over Tampa Bay Rays, ALCS Game 4 (8:00 p.m. ET, TBS) – 60%

Cleveland leads the series 2-1 after a 3-2 Game 3 win, and Tampa Bay has managed just five runs over the last two games. The Guardians’ staff is controlling this series at Progressive Field, and the Rays are now one loss away from an elimination game in Cleveland tomorrow. Momentum, crowd, and pitching all point one way. Play: Guardians moneyline via MyBookie.

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